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April 16th, 2026

Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:

Top News

One week to save the ceasefire

With one week to save the ceasefire, reports emerged that the US and Iran are both considering a two-week extension to allow more time for negotiations, though neither side has formally confirmed it.

A Keiko coronation?

Peru just held its messiest election in years — 50,000+ people couldn't vote, one official got arrested, and 35 candidates showed up including a comedian and a guy who calls himself a cartoon pig. Out of the chaos, Keiko Fujimori has clearly emerged on top according to Polymarket traders.

The AI valuation arms race

Investors are throwing money at AI companies faster than they can say no. Anthropic was said to have received offers valuing it at $800 billion — more than double its $380B valuation from February. Polymarket traders think hitting a $500B valuation by end of year looks more than set.

MVP madness

With 1 day left in the NHL regular season, we still have no idea who the 2025-26 MVP will be. Three different players -- Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov -- have between 30% and 40% odds, making the award race a very unusual toss-up.

Back to business, Scottie

Rory took the green jacket on Sunday. Scottie Scheffler took the runner-up and drove straight to Hilton Head. Round 1 of the RBC Heritage is underway and traders are optimistic Scheffler can go one better this week — but it's far from safe yet. Harbour Town's tight fairways don't care about star power, and there's a long way to go.

Wallet Watch

Trading big on Keiko

While Peru counts its ballots, one trader is already up over $50k Keiko Fujimori. With her odds around 65% and climbing, this could be a very good week in Lima.

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