Today: Week 12 predictions, Marcus Freeman on the outside noise, upset alerts, best bets, and injury intel.

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NCAA FOOTBALL

Josh Pate predicts Week 12's biggest games

Teams are running out of time in the 2025 college football season, and Week 12's matchups could decide conference fates. On The Josh Pate Show, Pate broke down four of the weekend's biggest games, including one he added to his best bets of the week.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (12:00 PM, ABC)

"I think Notre Dame is playing some really good ball," Pate said. He views Notre Dame as the more complete team and expects the Irish defense to force turnovers. Pitt's hopes hinge on a strong performance from quarterback Mason Heintschel.

Pate's prediction: Notre Dame wins decisively.

No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 PM, BTN)

Playing in Los Angeles gives USC an edge, and Pate thinks this could be a statement win. With the College Football Playoff still within reach, he's betting on the Trojans to play their most physical game yet under Lincoln Riley. "I'm going to ride with Lincoln Riley," he said. "They'll do it playing a physical style you haven't seen from Riley's teams before."

Pate's prediction: USC wins and covers.

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 PM, ABC)

"I think Alabama is going to win the game by double-digits on Saturday," Pate said. "People are terrified about this game. I don't feel that way." Ty Simpson is his player to watch. After a rough outing against LSU, Pate expects the Tide quarterback to bounce back, taking advantage of Oklahoma's secondary if given enough time in the pocket. He predicts Alabama will move the ball efficiently and pull away late.

Pate's prediction: Alabama wins comfortably.

No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 PM, ABC)

Pate believes this one comes down to tackling in space, yards after catch, and home-field advantage, and that last factor looms largest. Georgia rarely loses at Sanford Stadium, while Texas has struggled away from home this season. "I think home field is going to matter here," Pate said. "Now, Bama went in there and they took care of business earlier in the year. They were razor-sharp on third down... I don't think Texas can go in there and be that efficient."

Pate's prediction: Georgia wins and covers.

Read all of Pate's previews here.

NCAA FOOTBALL

While everything swirls around Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame, his focus remains unchanged

By now, Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman is used to it, every bit of it.

Used to the coaching carousel chatter about his future. Used to the dissection of Notre Dame's schedule and its independent status. Used to the shifting narratives that define modern college football. And used to the Irish living on a razor's edge every November.

It is the world Notre Dame has created for itself, both good and bad, and the world Freeman typically inhabits when guiding a program that has come within a game of a national championship and won 20 of 23 games along the way.

So when Freeman's name surfaces for the Florida or LSU jobs, or even the New York Giants in the NFL, and when outside noise focuses more on what Notre Dame has not accomplished than what it has, the Irish coach has a simple response: Why let someone else's noise interfere with your goals?

"There's too much work to be done, and we've all invested so much that none of that noise matters," Freeman told On3. "If my name is being mentioned for another job, that's somebody else's noise. That ain't the noise that Marcus Freeman is putting in his mind. It's the same with our players. We all have to make sure that we're evaluating the noise we're putting into our own heads, and does it align with our goals?"

The noise around Notre Dame has only grown louder as the Irish rise to No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Saturday's trip to Pittsburgh, their toughest remaining test of the regular season. They have won seven straight since an 0-2 start, improving weekly, yet only one of those wins has come against a ranked opponent. Even the ACC joined the conversation this week with a social post comparing Miami's résumé to Notre Dame's, asking fans to choose "WHO YA GOT?"

Freeman, for his part, is tuning it all out. "What matters," he said, "is whether we're doing the things to help us win on Saturdays."

Read Chris Low's full interview with Marcus Freeman.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Who's on upset alert this weekend?

Sherrone Moore, Mike Elko, Mario Cristobal, Lane Kiffin

The deeper we go into November, the more every game begins to matter. Wins and losses this time of year seem to carry extra weight, especially when a contender finds itself on the wrong end of an upset. As usual on Thursday's show, Pate broke out his Upset Alert Meter, ranging from two to 8.5, to highlight matchups that could shake things up this weekend.

No. 18 Michigan at Northwestern (+11.5)

An old-school setting at Wrigley Field could make this one trickier than expected for the Wolverines. Michigan has been dominant lately, but Pate sees the potential for Northwestern to drag the game into its preferred ugly style. The Wildcats' defense can frustrate opponents, and if they limit Michigan's rushing attack, things might tighten up fast.

Concern meter: 6/10
Expectations: Pate expects Michigan to win but thinks Northwestern can make it a grind.

TCU at No. 12 BYU (-3.5)

Saturday night in Provo could bring trouble for the Cougars. After a deflating loss at Texas Tech, BYU faces another team capable of lighting up the scoreboard through the air. Pate warned that TCU's offense can build early momentum, putting pressure on freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier to respond. If that happens, things could unravel quickly.

Concern meter: 8.5/10
Expectations: Pate expects TCU to challenge BYU deep into the night and possibly pull off the upset.

NC State at No. 15 Miami (-15.5)

Miami's playoff hopes remain alive, but this is the kind of matchup that can get dicey. NC State's pass defense has been leaky, yet Pate pointed out Miami's inconsistency through the air. If the Hurricanes' passing game sputters, the Wolfpack could make this one interesting late.

Concern meter: 5/10
Expectations: Pate expects Miami to survive, but not without a scare.

Florida at No. 7 Ole Miss (-11.5)

Lane Kiffin's team has everything to play for, and Pate doesn't see the Rebels slipping. Florida has struggled on the road, and Ole Miss gets a bye week ahead of the Egg Bowl. Still, Pate cautioned that any lack of focus could make this closer than expected.

Concern meter: 3/10
Expectations: Pate expects Ole Miss to handle business behind a strong offensive showing.

See all 6 games Pate has circled.

PRESENTED BY BETMGM

Best Bets: Brett McMurphy's Week 12 picks

Regarding last week's selections: If you can't say anything nice about something, then... well, you get the idea. Brett McMurphy went 1-6 in Week 11, dropping his season record to 37-56-2. After seeing how the last two weeks have gone, it might be wise to start fading McMurphy, but the choice is yours. Here are his latest selections, with lines courtesy of BetMGM.

Join now using code 'On3' and get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

Virginia at Duke: Duke -4
Notre Dame at Pitt: Over 55
Michigan vs. Northwestern (at Wrigley Field): Michigan -11.5
Texas at Georgia: Georgia -5.5

See all 8 of McMurphy's picks here.

🚨Headlines

NCAA FOOTBALL

Injury intel: Latest updates from Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, and more

Chandler Morris, R Mason Thomas, Whit Weeks, Mario Craver

Each week brings a new round of injury storylines that can shift the outlook of key games. On3's team of insiders, including Chris Low, Brett McMurphy, and Pete Nakos, has gathered the latest intel from around the country heading into Week 12. Here's who's in, who's out, and who's on the fence as gameday approaches.

🐘 Alabama

Sources told On3 that linebacker Qua Russaw and defensive back DaShawn Jones are expected to be game-time decisions Saturday against Oklahoma. Russaw has been out since September with a lingering foot injury suffered against Wisconsin.

🐅 LSU

Sources told On3 that linebacker Whit Weeks is not expected to play against Arkansas, with his long-term status uncertain. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier aggravated an abdomen injury during Thursday's practice and is now listed as probable. If he cannot go, Michael Van Buren would start. Wideout Nic Anderson is expected to be out for the foreseeable future.

🅾️ Oklahoma

The Sooners are dealing with a crowded injury list coming off the bye. Wide receiver Keontez Lewis and linebacker Kobie McKinzie are probable, while star defensive lineman R Mason Thomas remains questionable with a quad injury sustained versus Tennessee. Running backs Jovantae Barnes and Taylor Tatum are questionable as well, and defensive back Gentry Williams is listed as doubtful.

👍 Texas A&M

Star wide receiver Mario Craver is a true game-time decision against South Carolina. The standout playmaker has been battling an injury in recent weeks, though he's been active in workouts and will test things during pregame warmups.

⚔️ Virginia

Quarterback Chandler Morris remains in concussion protocol and is viewed as questionable for Saturday's matchup with Duke. There is optimism that he could be cleared in time, but his availability will depend on continued evaluation leading up to kickoff.

See the full injury report from around the country.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I was the No. 1 overall prospect in the nation in the 2008 recruiting class, and I graduated early to stay in-state with Clemson.
In my final college season, I led the nation in sacks and won both the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and ACC Defensive Player of the Year.
I played professionally for several seasons in the NFL before joining the coaching ranks at Clemson as a DL coach.

Answer at the bottom.

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