Today: Week 13 predictions, new Lane Kiffin intel, upset alerts, best bets, and the next Curt Cignetti.

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NCAA FOOTBALL

Josh Pate predicts Week 13's biggest games

Just two weeks remain in the regular season. Week 13 is famously light on marquee games with Rivalry Week looming, but every game is important at this stage of the season. Conference title races are narrowing, and the College Football Playoff picture is tightening, but Week 13 still has a few landmines. On Tuesday's edition of Josh Pate's College Football Show, he highlighted a pair of matchups with major stakes, and explained why the margins in each might be thinner than fans expect.

No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (12:00 PM, ABC)

Pate views this matchup through the lens of Missouri's powerful ground attack and says everything starts there. "You shut down Missouri's run, you shut down the game," he said, before immediately questioning if that is even possible. He does not expect another 300-yard explosion from Ahmad Hardy, but he does believe Missouri will run well enough to keep pressure on Oklahoma.

This will likely be a slower and more physical game than the Sooners experienced against Alabama, with Oklahoma trying to force Missouri into uncomfortable passing situations.

Pate's prediction: Oklahoma wins and covers.

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 PM, CBS)

Old school Pac-12 tension returns as USC heads to Autzen Stadium for only the second time in ten years, and Pate believes the Ducks are sitting on their best performance of the season. "I still think Oregon's best game is still ahead of them. Now, I am going to roll the dice a little bit and say it happens Saturday," he said, while also noting that USC is dangerous enough to make it interesting. "I could see USC winning the game. What do I think is more likely? I think it is more likely Oregon wins the game. I don't think blowout."

Pate's prediction: Oregon wins, but USC hangs with them.

Read all of Pate's previews here.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss to meet Friday as Florida, LSU pursue coach

Could a decision on Lane Kiffin's future be coming soon? Ole Miss is pushing for clarity from Kiffin on his long-term future, and a pivotal meeting between him and athletic director Keith Carter is set for Friday. As On3's Chris Low reported earlier in the week, sources have told On3 that Kiffin and Carter are scheduled to meet around noon CT, shortly after the Rebels wrap up a 10:30 a.m. CT practice. With the Egg Bowl a week away and Ole Miss in position to clinch a College Football Playoff berth, the program is seeking answers.

The Friday meeting comes as sources have told On3 that Florida and LSU continue to pursue Kiffin and apply pressure for a decision, with coaching searches across the country accelerating. Carter and the Rebels want clarity of their own, especially during a bye week that has become central to Kiffin's decision-making process. News broke Monday that members of Kiffin's family were in Baton Rouge, and sources also told On3 that they visited Gainesville on Sunday.

Kiffin faced repeated questions on the SEC coaches teleconference about his future, including whether he expects to coach in the Egg Bowl. "Do you know something that I don't know?" Kiffin said. "Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don't even understand the question of how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I (not) be at work?"

Ole Miss has aggressively pursued a lucrative package to keep Kiffin in Oxford. He is currently tied for the 11th-highest-paid coach in college football at $9 million this season, not including bonuses. The Rebels have won 10 or more games in three of the past four years, including each of the past two, marking the first time the program has done so since 1959 and 1960. His four 10-win seasons across the past five years exceed the program's total from the previous fifty seasons combined.

"I'm going to be proactive with working out a deal with Lane and Jimmy," Carter told the Ole Miss Spirit in October. "I'd love to get something done like Indiana did with Curt Cignetti before the silly season starts. We'll see. I believe Lane's happy here, but you never know what can happen with coaches."

Read the latest Kiffin intel.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Who's on upset alert this weekend?

Josh Heupel, Brent Key, Steve Sarkisian, Clark Lea

Just two weeks remain in the regular season, which means every contender is walking a tightrope. Upsets at this point in the calendar can flip the College Football Playoff picture overnight, and Josh Pate used Thursday's show to spotlight the matchups that carry the most real danger. His Upset Alert Meter quantifies how worried each favorite should be, and for several high-profile teams, Saturday brings meaningful risk.

Kentucky at No. 14 Vanderbilt (-8.5)

Vanderbilt has no margin for error after a second loss, and Pate believes the urgency should push the Commodores through against a hot Kentucky team. "I'm going to put a 6.5 on this," Pate said. He pointed to Vanderbilt's tendency to play tight games but trusts Clark Lea's group because of the schedule dynamic and the pressure of November playoff contention.

Concern meter: 6.5/10
Expectations: Vanderbilt survives a tense matchup in a one-score game.

No. 20 Tennessee at Florida (+4.5)

The venue is everything for Pate. Tennessee has not won in Gainesville in more than twenty years, which outweighs any paper advantage the Vols may hold. "When you haven't won in a building since the George W. Bush administration and you've been playing down there every other year since then, you don't get anything assumed about you," Pate said. He expects the environment to inject volatility regardless of Florida's overall trajectory.

Concern meter: 8/10
Expectations: Florida keeps Tennessee uncomfortable for four quarters.

Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5)

Pate views this as the biggest danger spot of the weekend. "I'm just going to go ahead and tell you this is a 10 on the Upset Alert Concern Meter," he said. He argued the wrong team might be favored, citing Georgia Tech's pass defense, which sits outside the top 100. He also noted that last week's game against Notre Dame was not in a must-win situation for Pitt, while this one clearly is.

Concern meter: 10/10
Expectations: Pitt exploits Georgia Tech's secondary.

Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (-9)

Turnovers drive Pate's concern here. With both teams expected to pass frequently, he sees enough randomness to elevate Arkansas as a live threat. "There's going to be a lot of passing here from both teams," Pate said. He also questioned Texas' mindset coming off Georgia, with Texas A&M ahead, with Arkansas sandwiched between two massive games.

Concern meter: 8/10
Expectations: A turnover swing creates real upset potential.

See all 8 games Pate has his eye on.

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Best Bets: Brett McMurphy's Week 13 picks

After another rough showing for Brett McMurphy, the skid continues. His Week 12 card produced another 1-6 record, and the season mark (38-62-2) has slipped even further into the danger zone. At this point, you might be better off treating these selections as a heat check or even a fade candidate, but proceed however your heart (or wallet) tells you. Here are McMurphy's latest picks, with lines courtesy of BetMGM.

Join now using code 'On3' and get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

BYU at Cincinnati: Over 54
Pitt at Georgia Tech: Under 62
USC at Oregon: Over 59
Syracuse at Notre Dame: Notre Dame -35.5

See all 6 of McMurphy's picks here.

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NCAA FOOTBALL

Searching for another Curt Cignetti or Bob Chesney? Lehigh's Kevin Cahill may be next

As the coaching carousel accelerates across college football, athletic departments are asking a familiar question. How do you find the next version of Curt Cignetti? Cignetti is 22-2 at Indiana after rising from Division II to the FCS to the FBS, which makes him feel like a unicorn. It is also possible that the path he took prepared him for success. That same arc is helping push current James Madison coach Bob Chesney, who moved from Division III to Division II to FCS to FBS, into the center of several major coaching searches.

The coaches who have built and won at multiple levels seem best positioned to keep doing it as they move up. The next name who may fit that mold is Lehigh's Kevin Cahill. His Mountain Hawks are 11-0, ranked fourth in the FCS, and carry the longest regular-season win streak in Division I at 16 games. Lehigh faces Lafayette on Saturday in the NCAA-record 161st meeting of the rivalry, with both teams 6-0 in the Patriot League. The winner earns the league title and an automatic FCS playoff berth. Cahill won that title last season and reached the second round before falling to Idaho and current New Mexico coach Jason Eck.

Cahill's turning point came against Lafayette two years ago. Lehigh led 21-14 at halftime despite being the less talented team, and he saw the disciplined, tough play he wanted. In the second half, Lafayette exploded for five touchdowns and won 49-21. "The fourth quarter of that game, I felt we quit," said Cahill, who came to Lehigh after 10 seasons as an assistant at Yale. "That bothered me."

In response, Cahill set out to build a culture where Lehigh players set the standard and never give up on one another again. He convinced them the scoreboard does not matter, only the way they play. "If you were to walk into our team meetings, you'd think we were 0-11," Cahill said. "We know on the inside that not everything is roses."

Continuity has fueled the rise. Lehigh returned its leading passer, rusher, receiver and tackler, which is rare at the FCS level because of transfer portal pressure and limited NIL resources. "In the land of the NIL and the transfer portal, it's not easy to navigate," Cahill said. "But we just try to be open and honest with everybody. This is where we're at. This is what we're doing. And if you want to be a part of it, stay. If you don't, if you think there is something better, then go chase something better."

A Big Ten program tried to poach one of his players last offseason, but Cahill and his staff explained the value of a Lehigh degree and the likelihood of better NFL visibility as a starter in the FCS rather than as a backup in the Big Ten. The player stayed.

The Patriot League occupies a unique space in the FCS, with higher academic standards and smaller recruiting pools, which makes coaching hires pivotal. Lehigh was 9-27 in the four seasons before Cahill arrived. Now the Mountain Hawks are playing for their second straight title, built on a standard they intend to uphold regardless of the scoreboard.

Read Andy Staples' full story.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I was the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2014 class and arrived on campus with expectations that matched the ranking.
I barely played as a true freshman due to injury, but once Jim Harbaugh arrived, I became a full-phase contributor, earning All-Big Ten honors while playing 986 snaps on defense, offense, and special teams.
In 2016, I became a Unanimous All-American, won the Paul Hornung Award, earned three Big Ten individual honors in the same season, played snaps at 15 different positions, and finished fifth in the Heisman voting.

Answer at the bottom.

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