Today: Unfiltered Week 12 takes, CFP and bowl projections, coaching carousel intel, and Kirby Smart's bold decisions pay off.

~9 minute read (2,140 words)

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NCAA FOOTBALL

Ari Wasserman's unfiltered takes after Week 12: Julian Sayin, Marcel Reed, and much more

A lot happens on college football Saturdays. It is hard to keep up with everything. So in an attempt to bring everyone up to speed while taking a chance to provide some takes, here are Ari's overarching thoughts from the weekend.

Who is beating Ohio State?

We are reaching the point in the season where it is time to visualize how the College Football Playoff might unfold. Ohio State has stood above and beyond the rest of the sport all year and it is getting difficult to picture who could beat the Buckeyes in December or January. They have five of the top 15 players in the sport and have not even had to break a sweat. Yes, the schedule has not been daunting and even the Texas win looks shaky now, but winning games seems easy for Ryan Day.

Julian Sayin only strengthens that picture. He went 23 of 31 for 184 yards and a touchdown against UCLA and that might have been his worst game. He came in completing 80 percent of his passes, which would set an NCAA record. He is surgical, he is accurate and he is already a legit Heisman contender as a first year starter.

Marcel Reed

Marcel Reed delivered one of the wildest swings of the season. He played terribly in the first half and Texas A&M fell behind 30-3 to South Carolina. But then Reed threw for 300 yards in the second half and now has the Aggies at 10-0. Throughout the season Reed has elevated Texas A&M to heights it has not reached, dating back to the game winner at Notre Dame. If the Heisman vote were tomorrow, he would be No. 1.

Alabama

Alabama was beginning to feel bulletproof. This loss feels reasonable. The schedule has been incredibly hard and outside of the train wreck in Tallahassee, the Crimson Tide ran through ranked teams all season. Something like this was bound to happen now that talent is more equitable. Alabama can still make a run in the CFP. It just has to avoid funny business in the Iron Bowl.

Texas

This is not Texas' year. Against Georgia the Longhorns looked overmatched for four quarters. Arch Manning is still developing, the offensive line is below average and the team lacks playmakers. This roster could have been upgraded in the portal and that is what frustrates fans. This was the preseason national title pick and it is not close.

USC at Oregon

You could make a strong case that nonsensical conference realignment was the biggest enemy to this sport, even more than CFP expansion, lack of NIL regulation and the ability to transfer with impunity. The sport doesn't make sense anymore. But guess what? This weekend, we're getting the Pac-12 title game. USC-Oregon, with CFP contention still on the line and it has nothing to do with the Big Ten race. Though USC still has an outside shot at winning the Big Ten, this is two West Coast teams playing a colorful game in Autzen Stadium to remain alive in the hunt. This is their own mini Playoff game against each other.

The ACC and Miami

Virginia's blowout of Duke and Georgia Tech's narrow win over Boston College point to an ACC title game featuring the Cavaliers and the Yellow Jackets. Miami still has an outside shot but must finish 10-2. Oklahoma's win at Alabama reduced available CFP space and USF's loss damaged Miami's resume. If Miami and Notre Dame are compared for one final spot, it could get dicey. Miami must handle its final two games first, and that Pitt game should terrify Canes fans.

Lane Kiffin

After the clunky win over Florida, Kiffin was asked about next season. His answer was, "To even talk about it right now would be so disrespectful to our players and how well they played together. We have a lot of things going here, doing really well and I love it here." Some people took that as him struggling to answer. The pressure of deliberating a future in public is enormous. He will not tip his hand after an emotional win over a team that wants to hire him. Ole Miss still needs an answer soon, so the drama is not over.

Read all 20 of Ari's takes.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Brett McMurphy's updated College Football Playoff, bowl projections

Entering the final stretch of the season, the playoff picture is tightening and the SEC is making a forceful push to dominate the 12-team field. Oklahoma's statement win at Alabama vaults the Sooners into this week's projections and gives the SEC a chance to place five teams in the bracket. If OU finishes strong against Missouri and LSU, it would join Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss, which would be an unprecedented haul for one league.

The Big Ten remains well-positioned with Ohio State, Indiana, and the Oregon or USC winner all tracking toward berths. The ACC and Big 12 appear to be one-bid leagues, while Notre Dame continues to hover as a dangerous at-large. Tulane is Brett McMurphy's pick to emerge as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, rounding out the 12.

College Football Playoffs

The first round features compelling stylistic contrasts and potential chaos. Tulane heads to Texas Tech in a meeting of tempo and toughness. Alabama travels west for a tricky matchup at Oregon. Georgia Tech gets its first taste of the expanded field at Ole Miss, while Notre Dame heads to Norman in a game that could swing on quarterback play and turnovers.

From there, the bracket sets up a heavyweight semifinal weekend. Ohio State's path runs through Oregon in the Rose Bowl before a Fiesta Bowl clash with Georgia. Texas A&M draws Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and would meet Indiana in the Peach Bowl semifinal. McMurphy projects a national title showdown in Miami between the Buckeyes and the Aggies, with Texas A&M completing its breakthrough season.

Notable bowl games

Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 27): BYU vs. Virginia
Gator Bowl (Dec. 27): Miami vs. LSU
Texas Bowl (Dec. 27): Kentucky vs. Iowa State
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Tennessee vs. Iowa
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Clemson vs. Arizona
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas vs. Michigan
Duke's Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2): Missouri vs. Wake Forest

Read McMurphy's full projections.

COACHING CAROUSEL

Coaching carousel intel: Latest at Florida, Virginia Tech, and more

James Franklin, Mike Norvell, Lane Kiffin, Jonathan Smith

The hot seat picture shifted again after Week 12, with several major programs pushing toward decisions and others bracing for pressure in the final two weeks. Nine power conference schools are already in the market for new coaches, and a few key openings are shaping the next major moves on the carousel. Here is the latest intel On3 is hearing.

Open jobs

🐊 Florida: The Gators continue to zero in on Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin as the clear top target. Ole Miss fans even chanted "We want Lane" as he walked off the field after beating Florida in Oxford. It remains unclear, from speaking with sources, when Kiffin will have to make a decision on his future. If Kiffin does not go to Florida, industry sources pointed to Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz, Georgia Tech's Brent Key, and Louisville's Jeff Brohm as names to know. Louisville is working on an extension for Brohm, although nothing was finalized as of Saturday night.

🦃 Virginia Tech: Former Penn State head coach James Franklin has been the clear top target during the last two weeks. Sources indicated to On3 on Saturday night that talks continue to progress, although Franklin is also involved in other searches. Virginia Tech wants to make a hire by the end of the regular season and needs a final answer soon. If a deal does not happen, James Madison head coach Bob Chesney and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall are the top names to know.

🦅 Auburn: The Tigers have spoken with roughly 10 candidates since firing Hugh Freeze two weeks ago. Tulane's Jon Sumrall, Auburn defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, Vanderbilt's Clark Lea, and Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz have emerged as frontrunners, according to sources. Other names in the mix include Georgia Tech's Brent Key, North Texas' Eric Morris, USF's Alex Golesh, and Memphis' Ryan Silverfield. Former Penn State head coach James Franklin is not expected to factor into the search.

🦁 Penn State: Texas A&M signed Mike Elko to an extension on Saturday, creating another ripple effect within the Penn State opening. Athletic director Pat Kraft has cast a wide net, and names that continue to surface among industry sources include Brent Key, Eli Drinkwitz, Clark Lea, and Jeff Brohm. At the offensive coordinator level, two names to watch are Ohio State's Brian Hartline and Oregon's Will Stein.

Jobs to watch

⚔️ Michigan State: With an 0-7 start in Big Ten play, pressure continues to grow on Jonathan Smith. However, he has had to rebuild the roster and strengthen NIL resources, and he still has five years left on his deal. Any decision before season's end would be a surprise.

🍢 Florida State: Saturday's win over Virginia Tech moved Mike Norvell to 5-5. The Seminoles need one more win for bowl eligibility. If FSU wins out, sources indicated it could become a situation to watch with the possibility of a return for the 2026 season. Norvell's nearly $59 million buyout remains a major factor.

🦅 Boston College: Boston College pushed No. 16 Georgia Tech to the final seconds before falling 36-34. The loss dropped the Eagles to 1-10 and 0-7 in ACC play. Bill O'Brien is only in Year 2 of a five-year deal, according to sources.

Read all of the intel from Pete Nakos.

🚨Headlines

NCAA FOOTBALL

The game has changed for Kirby Smart and Georgia, but the Bulldogs still remember how to crush an opponent

Kirby Smart once had Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, and Travon Walker in the same defensive line room, so he never needed to rely on trickery. But the world changes, and the best either adapt or die. That is what Smart and his staff unveiled Saturday after Georgia went up two scores in the fourth quarter on a Gunner Stockton to London Humphreys touchdown.

A replay caught Smart smirking before the kickoff and beaming afterward as Cash Jones recovered a perfect Peyton Woodring onside kick. The Bulldogs stole a possession and used the spoils to drive for a Stockton to Lawson Luckie touchdown that stretched the lead to 18.

When the onside kick worked and Smart celebrated with his assistants, the obvious callback was Smart's final game as Alabama's defensive coordinator. In that national title game against Clemson, Nick Saban faced an offense and quarterback he was not sure his defense could stop often enough. With Deshaun Watson attacking all night, Saban needed the ball back and called a sky kick that caught Clemson completely off guard. That grin from Saban came to mind as Jones pounced on the ball.

Back when Georgia won titles in 2021 and 2022, the Bulldogs could suffocate opponents with overwhelming talent. On Saturday, the defense played well, but Texas scored a third quarter touchdown that cut the lead to four. Facing fourth and one from his own 36 on the next possession, Smart did something those earlier Georgia teams probably would not have needed. He went for it.

With Stockton dealing, Smart kept pushing. Mike Bobo dialed a great call, rolling Stockton away from pressure and slipping Chauncey Bowens into the flat for a 10-yard gain. Later in the drive, Georgia converted another fourth down when Texas jumped offside.

After Stockton hit Humphreys again to give Georgia cushion, Smart went for the jugular. Georgia probably would have won by kicking deep, but on a day when Texas A&M and Ole Miss nearly lost to below .500 teams and Alabama fell at home to Oklahoma, Smart refused to take chances.

He multiplied aggression by aggression. Stockton threw four touchdowns, then ran for another after a three-and-out. On a day when the SEC order seemed unstable, Georgia reminded everyone that even if it cannot win exactly like it used to, it still knows how to dominate.

Read the full column from Andy Staples.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I started 49 games at left tackle in college, earned 2005 first-team All America honors, and even played linebacker in a special defensive package during one season.
I became Virginia's first All-ACC offensive tackle since 1998, started in four straight bowl games, and finished my degree in 3.5 years.
I went on to be drafted fourth overall, made 160 consecutive starts for the New York Jets, and retired having missed only one offensive snap in my entire 10-year career.

Answer at the bottom.

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