Today: The postseason picture, Notre Dame opts out, what the CFP committee got right, and predicting the CFP champion.

~8 minute read (1,876 words)

If this email was forwarded to you, please subscribe.

BOWL SEASON

At long last, the 2025-26 Bowl season schedule has arrived

The postseason picture is finally set, but the instability surrounding bowl season will be a hot topic for weeks to come. Notre Dame is this year's most notable bowl game defector, but at least 9 other teams have declined bowl invitations, including seven 5-7 programs who turned down the opportunity to face Georgia Southern in the Birmingham Bowl. Sun Belt rival App State wound up taking that bid.

Several other teams, such as Iowa State and Kansas State, also opted out after coaching changes. The wave of withdrawals has forced multiple bowls to rework their matchups and has renewed questions about the future of the system itself. As one anonymous bowl executive told On3's Brett McMurphy, "The bowl system we know now is officially dead. RIP. It was a nice run while it lasted."

Against that backdrop, the rest of the bowl lineup has finally come together. On3 confirmed the top five non-playoff Big Ten destinations, with Michigan headed to the Citrus Bowl, Iowa to the ReliaQuest, Nebraska to the Las Vegas, Illinois to the Music City, and Penn State to the Pinstripe. Former Pac-12 members also have their paths set, including USC to the Alamo Bowl, Utah to the Las Vegas, Arizona to the Holiday, and Arizona State to the Sun. Meanwhile, Boise State will face Washington in the LA Bowl, and conference champions Texas Tech and Tulane have officially secured their spots in the College Football Playoff.

CFP First and Second Rounds

The four first-round CFP games are set and will kick off on Dec. 19. Alabama travels to Oklahoma to open the postseason, followed by three matchups on Dec. 20: Miami at Texas A&M, Tulane at Ole Miss, and James Madison at Oregon. Each winner will advance to the national quarterfinals as part of the expanded 12-team format.

From there, the bracket shifts into traditional bowl venues. Ohio State will play the winner of the 7 vs. 10 matchup in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31. On New Year's Day, Texas Tech awaits the 5 vs. 12 winner in the Orange Bowl, Indiana will meet either Oklahoma or Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and Georgia will face the 6 vs. 11 survivor in the Sugar Bowl. The semifinal rounds will be held in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls on Jan. 8, with the national championship scheduled for Jan. 19 in Miami Gardens.

The full College Football Playoff schedule, kickoff times, and TV designations can be viewed here.

Bowl season

LA Bowl (Dec. 13): Boise State vs. Washington
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24): Hawaii vs. Cal
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Penn State
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 27): BYU vs. Georgia Tech
Texas Bowl (Dec. 27): Houston vs. LSU
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Tennessee vs. Illinois
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Vanderbilt vs. Iowa
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas vs. Michigan
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 31): Nebraska vs. Utah

See the full bowl schedule here.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Staples: Notre Dame got milked by ESPN for drama; so why should it help Disney generate ratings for the Pop-Tarts Bowl?

Notre Dame declined to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and the reasoning was as pointed as it was symbolic. After spending six weeks as a prop in ESPN's weekly rankings show, the Irish had no interest in playing a postseason game broadcast on another Disney network. Instead of facing BYU for the right to eat a toasted pastry mascot, Notre Dame chose to end its season with the Nov. 29 win over Stanford and make a statement about how the College Football Playoff process unfolded.

The frustration stems from the final CFP rankings, where Miami jumped Notre Dame despite neither team playing the previous day. The twist felt predictable once you acknowledge the truth the sport keeps relearning: the previous rankings did not matter. They existed as a television product, not a binding process. Still, the reveal stung. For five straight weeks, the committee placed Notre Dame ahead of Miami, only to reverse course at the finish line.

Perhaps if the bowls were televised by Notre Dame network partner NBC, the Irish would be more inclined to participate. But why should the Fighting Irish help line the pockets of Mickey Mouse after the aforementioned rodent just milked them for six weeks of ratings and then tossed them aside?

The reaction inside the program reflected that shock. Notre Dame AD Pete Bevacqua called the rankings an "absolute joke" and said the team felt like it had been punched in the stomach. He added that the Playoff felt stolen from Notre Dame's student-athletes.

Fans unleashed their own frustration. Some wondered if the time has come for the Irish to join a conference, while others on the Blue & Gold message board even called for a lawsuit, arguing that the CFP selection process cost their program greatly. Notre Dame great Brady Quinn ripped ESPN, arguing they used the Irish as a "pawn" in the selection show.

The explanation for the ranking flip was not complicated. The committee created the confusion in early November by ranking Notre Dame eight spots ahead of Miami despite identical records, similar resumes, and a head-to-head result that favored the Hurricanes. Correcting the mistake at the end made the weekly buildup feel even more hollow. Notre Dame's players believed they were being evaluated honestly, but the initial error planted the idea that they were safely in the field.

The episode exposed the fundamental flaw in the weekly ranking shows. They were never essential to determining the field. They existed to provide content, and each awkward, rambling committee interview only made the product look worse. If Notre Dame's opt-out nudges ESPN toward fixing or replacing the format, the sport will be better for it.

Perhaps ESPN utilizes the talent it already employs to put on a better TV show. Picture this: Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, Booger McFarland, CFP reporter Heather Dinich, and advanced stats guru Bill Connelly argue on camera and produce their own ranking once a week through November. It would be far more compelling television than a deer-in-the-headlights AD making Rece Davis softballs look like a Mike Wallace interrogation.

If the ESPN talent's rankings differed from the actual committee's one final ranking, so what? That's no different from the actual committee changing its rankings on a whim now, and the viewership and discussion goals still get met.

There has to be a better way. And if it takes Notre Dame opting out of the postseason to get the dumbest TV show in college football canceled or rebooted, then so be it.

Don't miss the full column from Andy Staples.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Wasserman: The College Football Playoff Committee took the messy route, but still landed on the right bracket

The College Football Playoff Committee made the final month far more confusing than it needed to be. Week after week, they kept Notre Dame slotted ahead of Miami despite the Hurricanes holding a head-to-head win and the same record. The Committee told viewers that Notre Dame was the better team, and that messaging created an expectation for how Selection Sunday would unfold. When it did not, shock was the natural reaction. How could two idle teams suddenly flip on the final weekend?

But here is the point that matters most: the destination was correct. The path was flawed, but the bracket was right. The games still mattered, and neither public expectation nor projections about hypothetical future matchups ended up overriding what happened on the field.

Miami could not be left out without undermining the integrity of the process. With resumes that were nearly identical, the outcome of Miami's win over Notre Dame had to be the deciding factor. Had Notre Dame gone instead, the Committee would have essentially chosen opinion over results. That would have pushed the postseason into a world where guardrails no longer existed and where personal notions replaced outcomes. For at least one more year, the Committee sided with the results.

There is nothing wrong with questioning why the Committee made this so confusing. They could have ranked Miami higher from the start, eliminating the shock Notre Dame fans are experiencing now. Instead, they created a mess. CFP chair Hunter Yurachek explained that the Committee did not truly compare the two teams until BYU's loss placed them side by side. That explanation rang hollow, and there are plenty of holes to poke in the process. But the bracket itself was justified.

Alabama's inclusion, though controversial, followed the same logic. The Crimson Tide had more losses than Notre Dame, but strength of schedule mattered. Alabama ranked No. 11 in schedule strength compared to Notre Dame at No. 42 and Miami at No. 44. Alabama also carried a regular-season win over Georgia. Playing in a tougher league granted them the margin for error they needed.

People are right to be frustrated with how the Committee presented the rankings. It felt erratic, it felt unconventional, and it made the outcome harder than necessary. But leaving Miami out would have been a genuine injustice. The results were correct, even if the road to them was not.

And even if you are still angry, you can take comfort in that.

Read the full story from Ari Wasserman.

🚨Headlines

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Ari Wasserman predicts who will win the national title

The College Football Playoff debate can wait because once the bracket is set, the only thing that matters is projecting the path to a national champion. After picking Oregon, Alabama, Miami, and Ole Miss to advance through the first round, the field settles into its most compelling stage. The matchups tighten, the margins shrink, and several teams that were questioned all season now have a chance to prove they belong. With the early chaos out of the way, here is how the rest of the tournament shapes up.

Second round

Oregon at Texas Tech (Orange Bowl): If you view Texas Tech as a team that lucked into the CFP, you have not paid attention to how its roster was built. The Red Raiders are deep, balanced, and strong on defense. Oregon is also talented, but Texas Tech is not simply satisfied with reaching the field. It wants to make a real run.

Winner: Texas Tech

Alabama at Indiana (Rose Bowl): On brand power alone, Alabama looks like the safe pick. But Indiana showed in the Big Ten title game that it belongs physically on the same field as the sport's bluebloods. Alabama is good but flawed, and Indiana's defensive line is formidable.

Winner: Indiana

Miami vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl): Ohio State suddenly looks beatable after scoring only 10 points in the Big Ten title game. Even so, the Buckeyes remain loaded with NFL talent and one could argue they were banged up and riding an emotional win over Michigan. They are still positioned to make another deep run.

Winner: Ohio State

Ole Miss vs. Georgia (Sugar Bowl): Ole Miss has only one loss this season, and it came against Georgia. Will the Rebels get revenge? Possibly, but anyone who watched Georgia dominate Alabama in the SEC title game understands how dangerous the Bulldogs are at their peak. It is difficult to picture a first-year head coach toppling Kirby Smart in this environment.

Winner: Georgia

Semifinals

Indiana vs. Texas Tech (Peach Bowl): Two rising programs meet with a national title berth at stake. Both are capable of taking down the sport's traditional powers, but only one can advance. Indiana is not a fluke. It is a complete team built to win at the highest level.

Winner: Indiana

Georgia vs. Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl): An elite matchup featuring recent national champions and two of the sport's premier coaches. Their 2022 game was an instant classic, and this one carries similar potential. Ohio State enters as the defending champion and likely the stronger team.

Winner: Ohio State

CFP title game

Ohio State vs. Indiana: These have been the two best teams all season. Their Big Ten title matchup was defined by elite defenses, but a rematch with the championship on the line should produce more fireworks. It is difficult to see Ohio State losing to the same opponent twice.

National Champion: Ohio State

Read Wasserman's full breakdown here.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I once led Northwestern on a 75-yard game-winning drive in a season opener and later helped the Wildcats beat Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl, scoring my first career rushing touchdown in the process.
Despite starting only 14 games in college, I still finished top four in Northwestern history in both career passing yards and completions.
I went on to win a Super Bowl ring as the Broncos' third-string quarterback behind Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, before bouncing around with eight other teams.

Answer at the bottom.

SHAREWORTHY