Jobs Rise, Inflation Eases, But the Fed Isn't Ready to Blink

Stronger Hiring, Cooler Prices Keep Rate Debate Alive February 19, 2026

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A steady job market and easing inflation keep rate policy in focus.

Good Morning,

Stronger job growth and softer inflation ease fears of an overheating economy. The latest data gives the Federal Reserve room to wait, but policymakers are still divided on where interest rates go next. We break down what the numbers actually show, why investors reacted calmly, and how bond yields could still shift the story. If you're indexed to the S&P or overweight growth and AI names, this is the one to read.

CrowdStrike expands distribution through Microsoft's marketplace, Fujitsu doubles down on AI to modernize legacy systems, and the NBA's tanking debate resurfaces as the league balances record revenues with fan affordability concerns.

Don't forget to voice your opinion in my polls below.

Here are your Morning Bullets.

– Truly yours, Fred Frost

📈 Yesterday's Market Recap

Yesterday, February 17, 2026, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their third consecutive day of gains, with the Nasdaq joining the rally as tech sector jitters eased. Crude oil surged over 4.5%, buoyed by geopolitical tensions, while Treasury yields neared 4%, hinting at lingering AI valuation concerns. Here's what drove the action.

Indices Climb Higher: Dow and S&P 500 rose for the third straight session, signaling renewed investor confidence. → MarketWatch

Tech Stabilizes: Nasdaq gained ground as fears over AI and tech overvaluation took a breather. → TheStreet

Oil Prices Spike: Crude jumped more than 4.5% on Middle East uncertainty, lifting energy stocks. → Seeking Alpha

📉 Daily Performance Snapshot

Index/Asset	Closing Value	Change
S&P 500	6,843.22	+0.10%
Nasdaq	22,578.39	+0.14%
Dow Jones	49,533.19	+0.07%
Gold	$458.28	+2.24%
Crude Oil	$79.40	+4.86%
Bitcoin	$66,321.00	-1.96%
10-yr Treasury Yield	4.08%	+0.66%

🔭 What to Watch Today

Today's calendar is packed with market movers—from corporate earnings to geopolitical flashpoints. Keep your eyes on these events as they could ripple through equities and commodities.

Walmart Earnings Release (Pre-Market): Analysts expect 73 cents per share on $190.43B in revenue; a miss could drag retail sentiment. → Benzinga

Trump's Economic Speech (4:00 PM ET): Set in Georgia, the President's address could shift focus to tariffs or Iran policy, impacting oil and defense stocks. → Stocktwits

Jobless Claims Data (8:30 AM ET): Fresh labor numbers could sway Fed rate cut odds, especially after mixed FOMC minutes. → The Street

💡 Opportunity Watch

Amidst market uncertainty, a few themes stand out for savvy investors. These sectors and stocks could offer upside if geopolitical noise subsides or innovation delivers.

Boeing (BA) - Vietnam Orders: Shares ticked up on historic deals for 40 Dreamliners and 50 MAX jets; aviation growth in Asia looks solid. → Benzinga
Tesla (TSLA) - Cybercab Wireless Charging: FCC waiver clears a path for Cybercab's wireless system; production ramps in April could juice sentiment. → Finance Monthly
Carlsmed (CARL) - Cervical Tech: Stock rose 6% on personalized plating success at UCSF; healthcare tech remains a long-term bet. → The Street

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🔥 The Big Bullet

Jobs Look Stronger While Inflation Cools, Keeping Rate Bets in Play

What happened: New U.S. data pointed to a better mix for the economy: more people working and prices rising more slowly. One roundup said the government's latest updates showed employment up and inflation down in recent reports. Investors read this as a sign the economy may be holding up without overheating. Markets still reacted stock by stock, with traders focusing on which companies could benefit or get hurt if growth and rates shift. A market snapshot highlighted stocks making big midday moves as investors digested the day's headlines. Some moves were tied to earnings, while others looked like plain changes in risk mood. Overall, the news landed in the middle: not a clear "all good" story, but not a panic signal either. That kept attention on the next steps from the Federal Reserve.

Why it matters: Jobs and inflation are the two biggest inputs for Fed rate decisions, and they help set the tone for stocks and bonds. If inflation cools while hiring stays solid, the Fed can argue it has time to be careful instead of rushing. That matters because rate changes affect mortgage costs, credit cards, car loans, and how businesses invest. The latest meeting notes showed policymakers are still debating the path forward, and Fed minutes described disagreement on where rates should go. Some officials also talked about what happens if inflation stops improving, and a separate report said the minutes included discussion of a possible rate hike if inflation doesn't cool. Even the hint of a hike can push bond yields up and pressure high-priced growth stocks. On the flip side, steady inflation progress can support a "higher confidence" case for cuts later. For conservative investors, this is a reminder that rate risk is still real, even if the data looks calmer than before.

What's next: The next few weeks will likely be about follow-through: do the next inflation and jobs updates tell the same story, or do they reverse? Traders will also watch how Fed speakers talk about risk, since their tone can move markets fast. Another recap warned the minutes left open a tougher outcome, with commentary noting a hike was discussed instead of a cut if inflation stalls. Policy debates outside the Fed may matter too, because tariffs and trade fights can change prices for everyday goods. One headline showed that tension clearly, as a White House adviser criticized a New York Fed tariff study, keeping attention on trade policy and inflation. Investors should also track big earnings reports, since company guidance often reveals how consumers are handling higher borrowing costs. Watch bond yields and the U.S. dollar for quick signals on rate expectations. Finally, keep an eye on market breadth—whether gains are broad or narrow—because that can hint at how sturdy a rally really is.

Reader Feedback

Last time, I asked you: As big banks turn AI into a major market trade, what do you think happens next?

The majority of you at 66% said "The biggest companies win, smaller players get squeezed"

Tyler from Missouri replied: ""I think the biggest companies will win because they have more money and power, and the smaller ones might get pushed out."

Here's what I'm asking you today:

What do you think the Federal Reserve should do next?

Cut rates soon to support growth

Hold rates steady and wait for more data

Raise rates again to fight inflation

Not sure / no strong opinion

Other

As always if your opinion is not here, or you want to throw your two cents at me, reply to the E-mail, and let me know your exact thoughts.

🧭 Policy & Market Ripples

CrowdStrike on Microsoft Marketplace: Falcon platform now available via Microsoft Marketplace, easing procurement with Azure funds for enterprise security. → Stocktwits
Fujitsu's AI Development Push: New AI-driven tech aims to automate system development, targeting legacy system modernization for enterprises. → Seeking Alpha
NBA Tanking Debate Heats Up: Mark Cuban argues NBA should embrace tanking over fining teams, prioritizing fan affordability as revenue hits $14.3B. → Fortune

📜 This Day in History – February 19

February 19 is a study in scale: photography becomes a mass-market habit, global institutions reset expectations, the digital world gets new creative frameworks, and early electrification quietly reshapes the built environment.