Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
All eyes on Hormuz
A U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade is pressuring Iran while keeping global shipping open and raising real hopes the conflict could end soon. Polymarket traders are signaling a 74% chance by Wednesday.
We are the (likely) Champions
Leg 2 of the Champions League quarterfinals starts today, and by tomorrow we'll know who'll meet in the semis later this month. But let's be honest -- we kind of already know who'll probably win this. The combined odds for the top 3 teams is 80%, with Bayern Munich ahead of Arsenal and PSG.
Spider-Man hype continues
Sony and Marvel just unveiled new teaser posters for the highly anticipated upcoming 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' movie featuring Tom Holland. It looks set to be the highest grossing movie of 2026, according to Polymarket traders.
Is Adam Back Satoshi?
British computer scientist Adam Back has rejected claims from the New York Times that he is Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Polymarket traders believe the "Finding Satoshi" documentary will identify him as such. Will we ever know?
Don't forget the NHL
Think the last days of the NHL season don’t matter? This trader was ahead of the market and is now up nearly $700k on trades involving this week’s games.
DeepSeek V4 released by...?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
Virginia and Vini Jr breakup before 2027?
OH-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Military action against Iran ends by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Peru Presidential Election Winner
2026 NBA Champion
F1 Drivers' Champion
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
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