Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Marathon failure
US and Iran fail to reach deal after 21-hour marathon talks in Pakistan. According to U.S. VP JD Vance, negotiations broke down after Iran declined to guarantee it won’t pursue nuclear weapons. When will the conflict end?
McIlroy vs. Young Masters face-off
After taking the biggest lead in tournament history into the weekend, McIlroy suffered a huge setback yesterday. Traders remain hopeful he can pull off a victory against Young, but his odds are now less than certain.
An Orbán surprise?
Orbán is facing the toughest election in Hungary in years. Trump supports him, but Polymarket traders have a lot less faith. Will he blindside traders with a victory today?
Orthodox upset for Russia and Ukraine
Despite Russia and Ukraine agreeing to an Orthodox ceasefire, both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement. Is a ceasefire by the end of 2026 overly optimistic?
World Cup winner
This trader is already up nearly $50k on four World Cup trades. Is he missing any contenders?
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Terrebone By-Election Winner
# of views of Sabrina Carpenter's "House Tour" video on week 1?
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Military action against Iran ends on...?
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
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