Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. Forwarded this email? Subscribe here. What's cooking today:
No cuts for you
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday. But spiking inflation is making it harder for him to grant Trump's wish of lower interest rates.
Quick Links
He's running
Hunter Biden, "Artist. Author. Recovery Advocate," joined both X and Substack yesterday. What is he cooking?
Private markets
In partnership with Nasdaq, Polymarket now lets you predict the valuations of some of America's largest private companies, including Anthropic, SpaceX, and Anduril. Full list after the jump.
New York minute
Down 22 with under 8 minutes left in Game 1, the Knicks were blowing their status as East favorites. Then came the miracle comeback — and traders are bullish on New York again.
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
Trump kiss by May 31?
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Iran closes its airspace by...?
Fed Decision in June?
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
"No" Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949…
"No" Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
GoriIIa
"No" Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
NotBakerMcKenzie
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