🌅 Today's Morning Call
S&P Futures
7,630.50
▲ +12.25 (+0.16%)
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Nasdaq Futures
28,369.75
▲ +3.00 (+0.01%)
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Dow Futures
52,470.00
▲ +58.00 (+0.11%)
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10Y Treasury
5.10%
▲ +0.11%
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US Dollar
103.28
▲ +0.13 (+0.12%)
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Bitcoin
$69,192
▼ -$2,178 (-3.05%)
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Data as of 8:06 AM ET
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Good morning! Happy Friday. After a rough week, futures are edging higher, but the bond market is getting the most attention as the 10-year yield climbs to 5.10%. Modine is the morning's big standout on reports that Samsung wants to buy it. Here's your rundown before the bell.
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👀 What to Watch Today
Start with rates. The 10-year Treasury is up 11 basis points to 5.10%, and the 5-year is up 12 to 4.95%. That move matters for every stock valued on future earnings. S&P 500 futures are up 0.16%, while Nasdaq futures are flat at +0.01%. Tech hasn't bounced the way the broader market has.
Washington is also part of the chip story. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has agreed to testify voluntarily before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10 about Nvidia chip sales to China. The hearing is weeks away, but the headline adds political risk for NVDA and the semiconductor group today.
Also keep an eye on the dollar. The DXY is up 0.13 to 103.28, and a firmer dollar with rising yields usually makes it harder for riskier assets to rally.
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🌏 Overnight Recap
Europe's inflation numbers came in hot. French inflation rose to 3.7% in October, its highest level since December 2023. German wholesale prices jumped 8.8% from a year earlier. Numbers like these make it harder for anyone to expect rate cuts soon, and they help explain why global yields are rising.
There was also energy news overnight. The IEA said Russian fuel exports and oil output rebounded in October after a deal with Trump. In Germany, the government is reportedly considering buying the Urenco stakes held by RWE and E.ON, which keeps nuclear fuel supply in the spotlight for EONGY holders.
Crypto had a bad night. Bitcoin is trading around $69,192, down 3.05%, after falling below $70,000 for the first time since August. It's on track for a sixth straight weekly loss. Separately, the DOJ got court approval to seize or restrain more than $1.2 billion in crypto stolen from Binance.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) is on track for its best day in six years after Bloomberg reported that Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is in talks to acquire the data-center cooling company. Every AI server rack generates a lot of heat, and Samsung appears ready to pay to own a company that removes it.
NVDA, AMD, MSFT and AVGO are among the stocks moving the market this morning after a dramatic week for tech. Flat Nasdaq futures suggest traders haven't settled on a direction yet.
Stellantis (STLA) is facing a 30-day deadline from Canada to fix alleged breaches of a federal funding agreement or face possible legal action. The dispute escalated after the automaker agreed to sell its idle Brampton plant while trade tensions changed its Jeep plans. Crypto-linked stocks could also come under pressure with Bitcoin below $70,000.
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🔍 Today's Watchlist
- Treasury yields: the 10-year at 5.10% sets the mood for growth stocks today, so watch whether it keeps rising or levels off.
- NVDA and the chip group: the Lutnick testimony story adds political risk, so watch how NVDA, AMD and AVGO open after a volatile week.
- Data-center cooling: Samsung's reported interest in Modine highlights how valuable AI infrastructure suppliers have become, and other thermal management names could move in sympathy.
- European inflation: French CPI at 3.7% and German wholesale prices up 8.8% keep upward pressure on global rates and the dollar.
- Bitcoin at $70,000: it broke below that level for the first time since August, and whether it can get back above it is a good read on risk appetite.
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🎯 The Morning Playbook
Today's key question is whether stocks can keep rising while yields climb. A slightly positive open is fine, but a 10-year at 5.10% makes high valuations harder to defend. If yields keep rising during the session, expect tech to lag and defensive or value names to hold up better.
The Modine story is a useful reminder that AI spending goes well beyond chips. Cooling, power and infrastructure suppliers are becoming acquisition targets, and that theme may hold up better than headlines about the chipmakers themselves.
You don't need to make a big move on a Friday after a week like this. Know your levels, keep position sizes sensible and let the bond market show you where things are heading.
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