Conference play is upon us, and the spreads are squeezing or flipping outright as teams start hitting the road. The market knows conventional wisdom often doesn't apply when 100,000 hostile fans are screaming at a 20-year-old. Andy Staples is 20-12 on the season after a 6-4 Week 3, and below is a snapshot of his Week 4 predictions based on odds from Polymarket.
Texas at Tennessee (+5.5), Total: 55.5
It's a suspiciously tight spread for the No. 1 team in the country, but the market remembers Texas struggling in SEC road games last year, with losses at Florida and Georgia and a pair of overtime escapes. Neyland Stadium will be rocking even with a noon kickoff, so don't be shocked if the Volunteers keep it close or win outright.
Andy's pick: Tennessee +5.5
Iowa at Michigan (-5.5), Total: 37.5
Michigan has essentially played two Iowa games already, squeaking past Western Michigan before smothering Oklahoma's offense. So does that prepare the Wolverines for the real thing? Or will the pure, uncut Hawkeyes drag them into hell?
Andy's pick: Michigan -5.5
Staples has eight more picks on the board, including whether Ole Miss can avoid a classic hangover spot at Florida, what South Carolina-Alabama could reveal about the Crimson Tide, and a surprising call on Oregon at USC.
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