🌅 Today's Morning Call
S&P Futures
7,667.00
▼ -13.25 (-0.17%)
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Nasdaq Futures
28,792.00
▼ -155.00 (-0.54%)
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Dow Futures
52,513.00
▲ +102.00 (+0.19%)
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10Y Treasury
4.99%
▼ -0.06%
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US Dollar
101.66
▼ -0.10 (-0.10%)
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Bitcoin
$77,308
▼ -$480 (-0.62%)
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Data as of 8:06 AM ET
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Good morning! Happy Friday, and welcome to a split-screen kind of morning. Nasdaq futures are slipping after Intel and Amazon earnings disappointed, while the Dow is edging higher on the strength of Big Oil. Here's what's shaping the final session of the week.
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👀 What to Watch Today The tech earnings hangover is the main event. Nasdaq futures are down 0.54% to 28,792 as Intel (INTC) and Amazon (AMZN) weigh on sentiment, while S&P 500 futures are off 0.17%. Dow futures are bucking the trend, up 0.19%, helped by energy names like Chevron (CVX).
Keep an eye on the inflation conversation too. Fresh data showed a key measure of price pressures jumping, which challenges Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's view that the economy can run strong without overheating. If traders start doubting that story, rate-sensitive growth stocks could stay under pressure.
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.99%, down 6 basis points but still close to the 5% line. Watch whether yields keep easing through the session or bounce back.
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🌏 Overnight Recap Europe delivered a stagflation-flavored surprise. The French economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter as exports slumped, while October inflation in France rose to its highest level since late 2023. Separately, an ECB survey pointed to higher inflation in the coming quarters, which complicates any hopes for easier policy across the eurozone.
In European banking, UniCredit pledged financing support for German companies as it pursues its tie-up with Commerzbank, an attempt to win over a skeptical Berlin. Meanwhile, the U.K. opened an antitrust probe into Meta (META) over planned changes that would have let the company collect content from publisher websites to support products including its AI tools.
Crypto had a rough night as well. Binance and Polymarket suspended trading after hacks, and Bitcoin is down 0.62% to $77,308.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers Intel (INTC) is falling sharply in pre-market trading after an earnings report that let investors down. Amazon (AMZN) is adding to the tech selloff with disappointing results of its own, and the two together explain much of the Nasdaq's weakness this morning. Reddit (RDDT) is also among the names driving early action.
On the other side of the ledger, Chevron (CVX) topped earnings estimates as refining profits surged. Diesel prices have jumped worldwide after Ukrainian and Iranian strikes on refineries in Russia and the Middle East, which has been a big boost to refiners' margins. Exxon Mobil (XOM) is also in focus as energy takes the spotlight.
The catch for Chevron is its forecast for planned turnarounds and downtime that could cut fourth-quarter upstream output by as much as 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
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🔍 Today's Watchlist
- Intel (INTC) and Amazon (AMZN): watch whether the post-earnings selling deepens after the open or dip buyers step in.
- Chevron (CVX): earnings beat on surging refining profits, but guidance for 175,000 to 225,000 boepd of Q4 downtime could temper the rally.
- Meta (META): the U.K. antitrust probe puts AI content collection under a regulatory spotlight.
- Oil and yields: Brent forecasts for 2026 have topped $90 while the 10-year hovers just under 5%.
- Crypto security: hacks at Binance and Polymarket could weigh on sentiment as Bitcoin holds near $77K.
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🎯 The Morning Playbook Today's tape is a rotation story. Money is moving out of disappointing tech names and into energy, where high diesel prices and Brent forecasts above $90 are fattening profits. That divergence is why the Dow is green while the Nasdaq is red.
The bigger question is inflation. Hot price data at home, accelerating inflation in France, and an ECB survey calling for more of it all point the same way. With the 10-year near 5%, valuations on long-duration growth stocks have less room to stretch.
This isn't the morning to chase or to panic. Watch how Intel and Amazon trade after the first hour, since the market's verdict often shows up after the opening noise settles.
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