Key Points
- Newmont reported record third-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.20 per diluted share, even as gold prices pulled back from December 2025 highs.
- Gold has found a resilient floor near $4,000 an ounce, which still leaves Newmont a margin of roughly $2,500 per ounce under its cost guidance.
- Newmont generated $1.9 billion in free cash flow, funded buybacks and dividends, and maintains a strong balance sheet with $8.8 billion in cash.
- Special Report: Financial legend: “This is bad, really bad...”
Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) reported record third-quarter adjusted earnings on Oct. 22. However, the more important story for gold investors may be the price of gold itself.
The yellow metal has pulled back considerably from its December 2025 levels. Spot gold has traded between roughly $4,100 and $4,200 per troy ounce in October. That’s below the $4,500 assumption built into Newmont’s 2026 guidance.
Most investors are asking why gold is down. The better question may be why it isn’t down more. Interest rates are rising. The dollar should, in theory, be getting stronger. Oil prices are higher, which squeezes miners’ costs. Each of those is a traditional headwind for gold.
Yet gold appears to have found a solid floor near $4,000 an ounce.
That resilience is the tell. It suggests buyers are stepping in on dips rather than heading for the exits.
For a low-cost producer like Newmont, a durable floor matters more than a headline-grabbing peak. Even at $4,000 gold, Newmont’s full-year cost guidance leaves a margin of nearly $2,500 an ounce.
Here’s what the world’s largest gold miner reported, and why the floor matters for NEM stock.
Record Q3 Earnings Despite a Lower Realized Gold Price
Newmont reported adjusted net income of $2.3 billion, or $2.20 per diluted share. That was a third-quarter record. GAAP earnings came in at $2.35 per share. Revenue rose 15% year-over-year to $6.36 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $4 billion.
The average realized gold price was $4,317 per ounce. That was down $97 from the second quarter but up 22% from a year ago.
The company produced 1.3 million attributable gold ounces, plus 11 million ounces of silver and 23,000 tonnes of copper. Newmont reaffirmed full-year production guidance of 5.3 million ounces. It expects the fourth quarter to be its strongest of the year.
Costs Are Improving, But Watch the Fourth Quarter
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were $1,454 per ounce, down 10% from the second quarter. Newmont also improved full-year AISC guidance to $1,520 per ounce. At the third quarter’s realized price, that implies a margin of roughly $2,860 per ounce.
There’s a catch. Newmont guided fourth-quarter AISC to $1,900 per ounce. Higher sustaining capital, lower silver output at Peñasquito, and higher oil prices are the drivers. Management also expects unit costs to trend higher in 2027. That may explain why NEM shares fell about 4% in Friday's session.
Free Cash Flow Funds Buybacks and Dividends
Newmont generated $1.9 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. It has returned $1.9 billion to shareholders since its last earnings call. That includes $1.6 billion in buybacks, with $2.8 billion left on its $6 billion authorization.
The company has retired more than 115 million shares since February 2024, about 10% of its share count. Newmont also declared its quarterly dividend of 26 cents. Its framework holds total dividends near $1.1 billion a year. That means per-share payouts rise as the share count falls.
The balance sheet remains strong. Newmont ended the quarter with $8.8 billion in cash and a $3.2 billion net cash position. That’s before a planned $1.95 billion payment to Barrick (NYSE: B) under the amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement.
Red Chris Signals Confidence in Gold’s Floor
Newmont also updated investors on its Red Chris Block Cave project in British Columbia. Development capital is estimated at $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion. A final investment decision is expected in early 2027, with commercial production targeted for 2033.
The detail worth noting is the stress test. Newmont says the project delivers a double-digit return across scenarios that include $3,600 gold. That’s roughly $500 below recent spot prices. Management is committing billions over the next decade at a price well below today’s floor.
Mining Stocks Offer Gold Exposure Without Custody Concerns
For investors seeking gold exposure, physical bullion carries practical hurdles. Owners must arrange secure storage, insurance, and, eventually, authentication when they sell. Dealer premiums and bid-ask spreads can also eat into returns. Gold ETFs solve some of that, but they hold metal without generating cash.
A miner like Newmont sits in a brokerage account like any other stock. It also offers operating leverage. Newmont estimates that every $100 move in gold changes its revenue and costs by about $505 million. And unlike a gold bar, it pays a dividend.
That leverage cuts both ways. Miners carry operating risks that bullion doesn’t. Newmont dealt with a seismic event at Cadia this year and is monitoring drought conditions at Lihir.
Gold’s $4,000 Floor Could Support NEM Shares
Newmont’s quarter shows a business generating strong cash at gold prices well below this year’s highs. Technically, NEM is testing its 200-day simple moving average near $112.45. If gold’s $4,000 floor holds, that level could prove to be a floor for the stock as well.
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