A Message from T3 Live, LLC Dear Reader, Paul Tudor Jones keeps comparing this market to 1999. (Before you decide if he's right, grab my free book on the one line I've trusted for 30 years.) • Korea's market dropped 7.4 percent in a single session. I call that their "year 2000 moment." They’ve lived off of too much leverage for too long… I was trading in 2000. I watched the Nasdaq slide from 5,000 to barely over 1,000 in two years. Maybe you remember watching that bloodbath. Now, I'm not calling a top. This could be '99, with another year to run. It could be '98. Start too early and you get run over. Nobody knows which year we're in. That's the point. The people who got wiped out back then were on margin, averaging down, and holding and hoping. The ones with cash and a plan? They were the ones picking up the pieces. Some of the best years of my career came right after that crash. So if this is 1999... would you know when to get out? I don't guess. I watch one line on the chart. Above it, I stay in. Below it, I step aside. Get the free book that shows the one line I'd be watching if this is 1999 → — Scott Redler
Editor of Power Plays + Alpha Team Disclosures: 
The Fed, GDP and PCE All Land This Week. Here's the Schedule The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and two major reports on growth and inflation arrive the next morning. Here are the three events that anchor the trading week starting Monday, Oct. 26. 1. The Fed Decision, Wednesday at 2 p.m. ETThe Fed's rate-setting committee meets Tuesday, Oct. 27, and Wednesday, Oct. 28. Its calendar lists the decision for 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. On Sept. 16, the Fed raised its target range for the federal funds rate, which steers many loan and savings rates, by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 12 to 0. In a Reuters poll of 100 economists taken Oct. 16 to 20, 94 expected no change this time, and all 100 expected another hike in December, according to Mitrade's write-up of the poll. The same report put the odds of an October hike at about 17% on CME FedWatch, which converts futures prices into probabilities, as of Oct. 20. 2. Third-Quarter GDP, Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ETGross domestic product, or GDP, is the total value of the goods and services the U.S. economy produces, reported as an annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its first estimate for July through September at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 29. The prior reading was 2.2% for the second quarter, from BEA's third estimate released Sept. 30. Trading Economics lists its own forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter, and showed no analyst consensus, as of Oct. 23. This first estimate gets revised later, so the number can change. 3. September PCE Inflation, Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ETBEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for September is due at 8:30 a.m. ET the same day. It includes the PCE price index, a measure of the prices consumers pay. In August, the index was up 3.4% from a year earlier, according to BEA. Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, was up 3.0%, per Trading Economics. Its consensus for September, as of Oct. 23, is 3.1% for core over the year, and 0.3% for the month against 0.2% prior. The Fed called inflation elevated in its Sept. 16 statement. The report lands one day after the committee meets. Its next meeting is Dec. 8 and 9. What It Means for YouEconomists and traders can be wrong, and a report that lands above or below expectations can move stocks and bond yields in either direction. Interest rate decisions reach households through mortgage, car loan and credit card rates, and companies through borrowing costs. Higher rates can also change how investors value stocks, especially companies whose profits are expected far in the future. One week of data rarely settles the bigger picture. Early GDP figures get revised, and the next Fed meeting is more than a month away.
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